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Seismic Microzonation Studies for Skardu Master Plan 2040

Author(s)
Syed Kazim Mehdi Mott MacDonald Pakistan Pvt. Ltd., Lahore, Pakistan
Abstract
As a part of the Skardu City Master Plan 2040, this study deals with the seismic microzonation and further development of building and land-use planning strategies. Restrictions to ensure mainstreaming of seismic hazards in the spatial planning and management of the Skardu City. Proposed area of interest starting from Hotto/Gamba to Hussainabad Skardu is approximately 135000 kanal. Due to the presence of three major mountain ranges, the geology of Skardu Valley is much diverse consisting of Metamorphic and Igneous rocks. Mostly all soil types are found in the Valley. Typically, the Valley has Mesozoic and Paleozoic -Precambrian soil types. Historical and instrumental seismic catalogues were developed for the Skardu region (within 200 km radius). The area has experienced intensities up to XI and earthquakes up to Mw 7.6. To determine the Soil Profile Types in accordance with Table 4.1 of Building Code of Pakistan, the area was classified into various seismic units. The resultant Soil Profile Types are SB = 760 m/sec, SC = 450 m/sec and SD = 200 m/sec. As per Deterministic Hazard Analysis the Karakoram strike-slip fault is present about 35 km NE of the Skardu City. A large amount of seismic activity having Mw = 4.0 in the City, have been located from this fault. Maximum magnitude assigned to the fault is Mw 7.7, while the computed PGA (H) = 0.2 g and PGA (V) = 0.13 g [PGA = Peak Ground Acceleration]. Based on geological maps, borehole logs, satellite imagery, and literature review, Skardu City (2040) was divided into three seismic microzones: Skardu Khas, Hussainabad, and Shigri Kalan. Hazard results are presented as horizontal hazard curves and uniform hazard spectra for return periods of 475, 975, and 2475 years. PSHA was performed using EZ-FRISK (Fugro, USA), and the resulting ground motion values (g) align with BCP 2021.Large number of construction activity is under progress in the Skardu City. It should strictly adhere to existing and state of art Building Code of Pakistan 2021. Areas with Soil Profile Types SB and SC are good for construction purposes. While Soil Profile Types areas of SD may be avoided in constructions goings-on. Further geological and geotechnical investigations are needed to identify active near-source seismogenic structures and support safer design decisions. Although natural hazards cannot be prevented, effective mitigation strategies can significantly reduce associated risks and damage.
Publication Details
Page(s) 1-1
DOI DOI not available
Published Journal: Book of Abstracts: 8th International Conference "Earth Sciences Pakistan 2026" (ESP-2026), June 12-14, 2026, Volume: 1, Issue: 1, Year: 2026

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Keywords
Master Plan 2040, EZ-FRISK software, Seismic microzonation, PGA, Soil profile types
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