An Integrated Model for Forecasting Wheat Consumption in Pakistan: Emphasizing Social and Economic Factors.

NT Khan; J Park; YB Kim

Author(s)

NT Khan 27415 Simulation Laboratory Department of Industrial Engineering, Sungkyunkwan University, Suwon, South Korea

J Park School of Management and Administration, Yong In University, Yong In, South Korea

YB Kim 27415 Simulation Laboratory Department of Industrial Engineering, Sungkyunkwan University, Suwon, South Korea

Abstract

Wheat is one of the most commonly consumed foods on the Indian subcontinent, especially in Pakistan. It is difficult to find literature regarding wheat consumption forecasting, although some researchers have already focused on wheat production forecasting. Time-series modeling has been adopted with only historical data on wheat, while several influential factors have been neglected. This paper proposes that historical consumption data cannot provide complete information and lacks the power to forecast future values accurately; thus, a simple but powerful model is derived that includes economic and social factors. The proposed model is also compared with conventional approaches, demonstrating its ability to capture highly efficient and accurate forecasts.

Publication Details

Page(s) 290-296

DOI DOI not available

Published Journal: Journal of Animal and Plant sciences, Volume: 28, Issue: 1, Year: 2018

Request the full text from PASTIC

Keywords

Regression, Economic Factors, Social Factors

References

Amin , M.,M.Amanullah,A . Akbar,,2014,Time series modeling for forecasting wheat production of Pakistan,The J. Anim. Plant Sci,24,1444,1451

Becker-Reshef , I.,E.Vermote,M.Lindeman,C.Justice,,2010,A generalized regression-based model for forecasting winter wheat yields in Kansas and Ukraine using MODIS data,Remote Sens. Environ,114,1312,1323

Dempewolf , J.,B.Adusei,I.Becker-Reshef,B.Barker,P.Potapov,M.Hansen,C.Justice,,2013,,Proc. IEEE Int. Geosci. Remote Sens,,3239,3242

Dorosh , P.,A . Salam,,2008,Wheat markets and price stabilisation in Pakistan: An analysis of policy options,Pakistan. Dev. Rev,47,71,87

Friedman , J., S.Y.,Hong , and X.,Hou,,2011,The impact of the food price crisis on consumption and caloric availability in Pakistan: evidence from repeated cross-sectional and panel data,World Bank, Technical report,,,

Gerbens-Leenes , P.W., S.,Nonhebel , and M.S.,Krol,,2010,Food consumption patterns and economic growth. Increasing affluence and the use of natural resources,Appetite,55,597,608

Green , K. C.,J.S.Armstrong,,2015,Simple versus complex forecasting: The evidence,J. Bus. Res,68,1678,1685

Iqbal , N.,K.Bakhsh,A.Maqbool,A.S.Ahmad,,2005,Use of the ARIMA model for forecasting wheat area and production in Pakistan,J. Agric. Soc. Sci,1,120,122

Kadane , J. B.,N.A.Lazar,,2004,Methods and criteria for model selection,J. Am. Stat.Assoc,99,279,290

Raza , A.,,2015,,Pakistan: Grain and Feed Annual Report, USDA Foreign Agricultural Service,,,

Sadik , N.,,1991,Population growth and the food crisis,Food Nutr,1,3,6

Sher , F.,and E.Ahmad,,2008,Forecasting wheat production in Pakistan,Lahore J. Econ,3,57,85