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Comparison stock price prediction between ARIMA, multiple linear regression and lstm models by adding stock sentiment analysis and usd/idr fluctuation

Author(s)
CHRYSMIEN Information Systems Management Department, BINUS Graduate Program – Master of Information Systems Management, Bina Nusantara University, Jakarta, Indonesia
RIYANTO JAYADI Information Systems Management Department, BINUS Graduate Program – Master of Information Systems Management, Bina Nusantara University, Jakarta, Indonesia
Abstract
Since the COVID-19 pandemic, the number of new investors entering the Indonesia capital market has significantly increased. Director of Index Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) said the pandemic COVID-19 also brought several new achievements in the capital market, including in terms of the number of investors, market capitalization, to volume, frequency, and investment value. Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) is a model that is commonly used to predict the movement of a stock. However, there are also some limitations of ARIMA, ARIMA model can no longer accommodate when there is a sharp spike or drops in prices and if ARIMA model used for a long time, the forecast results will be constant. This research was conduct on FREN's stock price which recently has a high trend and the price is strongly influenced by public sentiment. In this study, researchers will compare the Multiple Linear Regression, LSTM model using proposed model with ARIMA to give new insight from business side and stock investors to give a better decisions in stock investment strategies. The results show that ARIMA which predicts stock movements based on historical data alone cannot predict FREN stocks when there is a sharp spikes of stock prices.
Publication Details
Page(s) 1158-1169
DOI DOI not available
Published Journal: Journal of Theoretical and Applied Information Technology, Volume: 100, Issue: 4, Year: 2022

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Keywords
multiple linear regression, LSTM, ARIMA, Stock Price Prediction, FREN
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