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Forecasting the Infant Mortality Using Time Series Models

Author(s)
Fayaka Bint-e-Nasir Department of Statistics, Allama Iqbal Open University, Islamabad, Pakistan
Muhammad Zakria Department of Statistics, Allama Iqbal Open University, Islamabad , Pakistan
Aysha Sheraz National Institute of Population Studies, Ministry of National Health Servi ces Regulations and Coordination, Islamabad, Pakistan
Abstract
Infant Mortality has always remained the most important area of the global population; Specifically, the reduction in infant mortality. The secondary data about Total Infant Mortality (TIM) in Punjab, Sindh, Balochistan, and KhyberPakhtunkhwa during 1968-2017 have been analyzed and interpreted in this study. The data during 1968-2007 are treated as a training set whereas during 2008-17 as a test set. The means of female TIM of Punjab, Sind, KPK and Balochistan are 79678, 28448, 17531, and 8758.6 respectively while the means of male TIM of the same order are 98264, 33098, 23258, and 8832.5 respectively. The Standard Deviation (SD) of Punjab female TIM is maximum i.e., 12543 and KPK female TIM is 3073.6 while the SD of Punjab male TIM is Maximum i.e., 20396 and Balochistan male TIM is 2912.2 only. It indicates the strong genetic makeup and better immune system of females than males. It might be because of the population density also. TIM of Pakistan was predicted using Bottom-Up, Top-Down and Optimal Combination techniques taking ARIMA as the base. The goodness of fit was also tested using MPE, MAPE and RMSE. The smaller values of RMSE for female Punjab, male Sindh, male-female KPK and male-female Balochistan are 3905.38, 6377.55, 3453.44, 3088.42, 2026.49 and 2224.30 respectively illustrating that Optimal Combination technique fitted better than the Bottom-Up and TopDown techniques. For comparison purposes, TIM was also forecasted during 2018-27 using the said three techniques. However, Optimal Combination forecasting was found to be more consistent than the Bottom-Up and Top-Down techniques and may be preferred.
Publication Details
Page(s) 34-42
DOI DOI not available
Published Journal: Pakistan Journal of Life and Social Sciences, Volume: 19, Issue: 1, Year: 2021

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Keywords
Prediction, ARIMA, Infant mortality, Top-down, Optimal Combination, Bottom-up
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