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Bayesian Inference for Double Seasonal Moving Average Models: A Gibbs Sampling Approach

Author(s)
Ayman A Amin Department of Statistics, Mathematics, and Insurance Faculty of Commerce, Menoufia University, Egypt
Abstract
In this paper we use the Gibbs sampling algorithm to develop a Bayesian inference for multiplicative double seasonal moving average (DSMA) models. Assuming the model errors are normally distributed and using natural conjugate priors, we show that the conditional posterior distribution of the model parameters and variance are multivariate normal and inverse gamma respectively, and then we apply the Gibbs sampling to approximate empirically the marginal posterior distributions. The proposed Bayesian methodology is evaluated using simulation study.
Publication Details
Page(s) 483-499
DOI DOI not available
Published Journal: Pakistan Journal of Statistics and Operation Research, Volume: 13, Issue: 3, Year: 2017

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Keywords
Gibbs sampler, Bayesian analysis, Double seasonality, Multiplicative seasonal moving average
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