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Investigating wheat yield and climate parameters regression model based on akaike information criteria

Author(s)
SARDAR SARFARAZ Pakistan Meteorological Department and Institute of Space & Planetary Astrophysics, University of Karachi, Karachi, Pakistan
SYED SHAHID SHOUKAT Institute of Environmental Studies, University of Karachi, Karachi, Pakistan
TARIQ MASOOD ALI KHAN Institute of Environmental Studies, University of Karachi, Karachi, Pakistan
Abstract
Wheat is a staple food of Pakistan and a central commodity of world food security. Wheat yield production is likely to be affected adversely (or positively at some places) in a changing climate scenario and ever-increasing demand due to burgeoning world population and may lead to a growing food security issue because of changing climate. This study investigated the covariability of wheat yield production in Pakistan with the principal climate parameters, precipitation and temperature, through a linear regression method by adopting the Akaike Information Criteria (AIC)-based best model selection strategy, for given data over 51-year period. Employing the AIC technique on twenty different combinations of seasonal aggregates of rainfall, seasonal mean temperature, seasonal minimum and maximum temperatures, the investigation revealed that the model containing a combination of seasonal-minimum temperature and seasonal-mean temperature is the best model for wheat yield production followed by 7 equally adequate models with different combinations of climate parameters from the data. Hence, seasonalaveraged minimum and mean temperatures proved to be the best-fit regressors deduced by the AIC-based criterion.
Publication Details
Page(s) 1299-1306
Published Journal: Pakistan Journal of Botany, Volume: 53, Issue: 4, Year: 2021

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Keywords
Temperature, Precipitation, Wheat yield, Regression
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