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Double exponential forecasting model for dates production in Pakistan

Author(s)
Saleem Abid Social Sciences Research Institute, National Agricultural Research Centre,Islamabad,Pakistan
Anum Fatima Social Sciences Research Institute, National Agricultural Research Centre,Islamabad,Pakistan
Sobia Naheed Social Sciences Research Institute, National Agricultural Research Centre,Islamabad,Pakistan
Asrar Sarwar World Vegetable Center, Pakistan
Muhammad Nisar Khan Social Sciences Research Institute, National Agricultural Research Centre,Islamabad,Pakistan
Abstract
- This study was carried out to examine prospect trends of dates area and production in Pakistan by using time series data from 198081 to 2012-13 (32 years).Three accuracy measures were used for the selection of best fitted model. These accuracy measures are mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), mean absolute deviation (MAD) and mean squared deviation (MSD). Double exponential trend was located to be best fitted model among other five models (linear trend, quadratic trend , exponential growth , s-curve and moving average) for estimating predicted values of area and production of dates for upcoming seven years. The estimated values of area and production represent increasing trend were 2.2, 93.8, 95.5, 97.2, 98.0, 100.6 and 102.3 '000' hectares and 548.5, 556.0, 563.5, 571.0, 578.5, 585.9 and 593.4 '000' tonnes from 2013-14 to 2019-20, respectively .
Publication Details
Page(s) 291-297
DOI DOI not available
Published Journal: Pakistan Journal of Agricultural Research, Volume: 29, Issue: 3, Year: 2016

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Keywords
Pakistan, Production, Phoenix dactylifera, Forecasting Errors, Double Exponential Model, Area, Time Series Data
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