Levels of recent and targeted determinants of fertility in Pakistan | [Proceedings of Pakistan Academy of Sciences • 2009]

Author(s):

1. Abdul Nasir Jamal: Department of Statistics, The Islamia University of Bahawalpur, Bahawalpur, PAKISTAN

2. Munir Akthar: Department of Statistics, The Islamia University of Bahawalpur, Bahawalpur, PAKISTAN

3. M. H. Tahir: Department of Statistics, The Islamia University of Bahawalpur, Bahawalpur, PAKISTAN

Abstract:

The Bongaarts non-age-specific aggregate approach for determining the proximate determinants of fertility have been vogue for over two decades. In this paper, we estimated the proximate determinants of fertility in Pakistan. The data used in this study have been taken from two National Surveys. The marriage index reveals that 68% of Pakistani women in their reproductive period are sexually active while keeping all other determinants constants. The index of contraceptive use and effectiveness indicates that fertility is only 17 % lower than it would be, if no women ever used contraception keeping all other determinants constant. In this study, under the borrowed assumption the index of post-partum fecundibility shows that the post-partum amenorrhea and post-partum abstinence suppress maximum potential fertility is about 35%. Lastly,a contraceptive-method-specific target-setting methodology has been presented for the policy makers using the above proximate determinants of fertility under certain assumptions for estimating the increase in contraceptive prevalence that would have to occure to achieve targeted future reductions in Pakistan's fertility.

Page(s): 23-28

DOI: DOI not available

Published: Journal: Proceedings of Pakistan Academy of Sciences, Volume: 46, Issue: 1, Year: 2009

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