Earthquake prediction: A global review and local research. | [Proceedings of Pakistan Academy of Sciences • 2009]

Author(s):

1. M. A. Mubarak: Center for Earthquake Studies (CES), National Center for Physics (NCP), Islamabad, Pakistan

2. Muhammad Shahid Riaz: Center for Earthquake Studies (CES), National Center for Physics (NCP), Islamabad, Pakistan

3. Muhammad Awais: Center for Earthquake Studies (CES), National Center for Physics (NCP), Islamabad, Pakistan

4. Zeeshan Jilani: Center for Earthquake Studies (CES), National Center for Physics (NCP), Islamabad, Pakistan

5. Nabeel Ahmed: Center for Earthquake Studies (CES), National Center for Physics (NCP), Islamabad, Pakistan

6. Muhammad Irfan: Center for Earthquake Studies (CES), National Center for Physics (NCP), Islamabad, Pakistan

7. Farhan Javed: Center for Earthquake Studies (CES), National Center for Physics (NCP), Islamabad, Pakistan

8. Aftab Alam: Center for Earthquake Studies (CES), National Center for Physics (NCP), Islamabad, Pakistan

9. Mahmood Sultan: Center for Earthquake Studies (CES), National Center for Physics (NCP), Islamabad, Pakistan

Abstract:

This article reviews natural pre-earthquake phenomena such as gravity variations, radon emanation, anomalous electric field and changes in meteorological parameters like temperature and relative humidity. The concept of Earthquake Preparation Zone which is the first sign of an imminent earthquake is described. According to this concept all the ground based pre-earthquake signals are generated all over this zone. The size of this zone is dependent upon the size of the earthquake under preparation and may have a radius of more than 300 km for an earthquake of magnitude 6. Furthermore, use of dedicated satellites to monitor earthquake precursors from space has been presented. In addition to ground based research the countries involved in space based research on earthquake prediction include France, Russia, Italy, Mexico, Japan, the UK Ukraine and USA. A plan is also presented for co-locating a tele-metered network of continuous monitoring some ground based earthquake precursors with existing seismic stations in earthquake prone areas of northern Pakistan. The present global trends in this field are a source of effusive optimism for successful earthquake prediction to become a reality in the near future. As a matter of fact, recent results of global earthquake prediction research promise successful prediction in the near future of hitherto difficult parameters about earthquake prediction such as where?, When? and How Strong? Section 6 of the paper also describe some research work in Earthquake Prediction/ Forecasting carried out locally at the center for Earthquake Studies, A sample result from the Statistical Method which gives intermediate term forecasting of Earthquake is given. A novel technique of recording gravity variations from distant earthquake was started with the assistance of Azerbaijan. The result obtained thereof are also given.

Page(s): 233-246

DOI: DOI not available

Published: Journal: Proceedings of Pakistan Academy of Sciences, Volume: 46, Issue: 4, Year: 2009

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