Use of the ARIMA model for forecasting wheat area and production in Pakistan. | [Journal of Agriculture and Social Sciences • 2005]

Author(s):

1. Najeeb Iqbal: Department of Environment and Resource Economics and Development Economics, University of Agriculture, Faisalabad, Pakistan

2. Khuda Bakhsh: Department of Environment and Resource Economics and Development Economics, University of Agriculture, Faisalabad, Pakistan

3. Asif Maqbool: Department of Environment and Resource Economics and Development Economics, University of Agriculture, Faisalabad, Pakistan

4. Abid Shohab Ahmad: National Commodity Exchange Limited, Karachi, Pakistan

Abstract:

Wheat is the single most important crop, which plays vital role in the Pakistan`s economy. It is imperative to assess scientifically the accurate future production potentials of this crop on the basis of past trends. Thus, the study has been made to forecast the area and production of wheat in Pakistan up to the year 2022. The ARIMA model showed that production of wheat would be 29774.8 thousand tons in 2002-22. The scope of higher area and production lies in adequate availability of inputs, educating and training the farming community, soil conservation and reclamation, and especially the supportive government policies regarding wheat cultivation in the country.

Page(s): 120-122

DOI: DOI not available

Published: Journal: Journal of Agriculture and Social Sciences, Volume: 1, Issue: 2, Year: 2005

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