Abstract:
This study investigates present and future climate anomalies over Pakistan. The variation in the present climatic period and future (2021-2050) has compared. For past and present climate anomalies, real-time data after a quality check by using RClimDex (1.0) was utilized. The 3 × Standard Deviation criteria for maximum and minimum temperatures were used to correct identified outliers. Annual mean and thirty years average for both temperature and rainfall for the period (1931-1960,1971-2000, 1981-2010, 2021-2050) was calculated. EC-Earth downscaled data was used for future projection of Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) and RCP8.5 respectively after downscaling through the quantile mappings technique. Based on the analyses, it is found that maximum and minimum temperature has risen throughout the country. This increasing trend of maximum temperature is more significant in future (2021-2050) as compared to the present climate (1981-2010). The mean annual temperature rise over Pakistan during the current century is 1.6°C. The rainfall departure and extreme rainfall events have been increased for present as well as for future climate. Both scenarios (4.5 and 8.5) show a rise in temperature about 1.5°C over the upper half of the country with major change over GB according to RCP 8.5. Rainfall anomalies in the first period evidenced drought-like conditions in southern parts of the country. In addition, 2000 and 2010 were recorded as first and second wettest years for study period 1931-2010. Future rainfall anomalies represent 5-10% deficient rainfall in the subtropical arid zone. It is strongly recommended that agriculture experts must consider these changes in policy-making.
Page(s):
85-94
DOI:
DOI not available
Published:
Journal: Pakistan Journal of Meterology, Volume: 15, Issue: 29, Year: 2023