Abstract:
Renewable energy-sources can be used for meeting the energy-demand of various end uses, like water-pumping for irrigation, process-heat for industries and desalination for potable water-supplies. However, the residential sector has the largest potential for renewable energy usage among all sectors of the economy. At present, the residential sector of Pakistan consumes some 26 million Tonne of Oil Equivalent (c/TOE) energy: with more than 6 MTOE in the form of commercial energy (electricity, natural gas, kerosene, LPG and coal) and about 20 MTOE in the form of non-commercial energy (wood, dung and crop- residues). Applied Systems Analysis Group (ASAG) has carried out a study to project the energy demand of Pakistan up to the year 2024-25, using an energy-demand model MAED. This model uses simulation technique to evaluate the energy-demand implications of a scenario, describing the assumed evolution of demographic parameters, economic activities, lifestyle of the population and technological improvements. The demographic targets of the Population-Policy of Pakistan and economic targets of Government of Pakistan have been adopted as the basis of our reference scenario. The study shows that the energy-demand of the residential sector will increase by a factor of 1.7, compared to the base- year2001-2002. The residential sector will need 41.9 MTOE energy, of which: (i) 5.9 MTOE (72.5 Twh) in the form of electricity to fulfill the energy-needs for lighting, cooling and other electric appliances, (ii) 24.4 MTOE for cooking, (iii) 5.7 MTOE for water heating, and (iv) 5.8 MTOE for space heating. In all these end-uses, renewable energy can make a contribution depending on the cost of energy, convenience of use and reliability of supply. Although, the government is vigorously pursing a rural electrification program, a portion of residential sector, particularly in remote areas, will not be electrified even by 2024-25. The non-electrified houses will require 3 to 5 TIM of electricity, by the year 2024-25, which can be supplied through renewables, depending upon resource endowment of the area. Theoretically, all the thermal energy-needs of residential sector for cooking, water heating and space heating can be met by renewables. However, natural gas, followed by LPG and kerosene, according to availability of fuels and affordability by consumers, are preferred fuels for thermal uses. These commercial fuels can meet only 11 MTOE of thermal energy-requirements for cooking, water heating and space heating. The resultant shortfall of about 25 MTOE, by year 2024-25, will be a potential market for renewable-energy sources in addition to the renewable-electricity market of 3 to 5 Twh.
Page(s):
97-108
DOI:
DOI not available
Published:
Journal: Proceedings Renewable Energy Technologies and Sustainable Development, Volume: 4, Issue: 0, Year: 2005