A comparison of minimum temperature trends with model projections | [Pakistan Journal of Meterology • 2011]

Author(s):

1. Sohail Babar Cheema: Pakistan Meteorological Department, Islamabad, Pakistan

2. Ghulam-Rasul: Pakistan Meteorological Department, Islamabad, Pakistan

3. Gohar Ali: Pakistan Meteorological Department, Islamabad, PAKISTAN

4. Dildar Hussain Kazmi: Pakistan Meteorological Department, Islamabad, PAKISTAN

Abstract:

Evaluation in the performance of a downscaling model is very important to gain the full advantages of future predictions of a model. Pakistan is an agrarian country with different climate region and majority of the people linked with agriculture. This study aimed at investigation of the recent trend of global warming for this region and to test the reliability of future data generation by a statistical downscaling model “SDSM” The present study has been performed on the evaluation of projected minimum temperature of SDSM ( Statistical Downscaling Model). The evaluation has been performed for the period 1991-2010. Meteorological data and model projected data has been used for the 44 stations. The annual as well as monthly analysis has been done for the validation of model. There was a significant increase in temperature on the annual basis but the monthly change is not significant according to the Mann-Kendall test. The result showed a good accordance of the projected temperature with real time data. The Pearson correlation and value of R 2 was above 90 for most regions which was highly optimistic. However model over estimates for the entire region, the value of overestimation was also calculated. Different statistical techniques were applied to investigate the trend and significant change in minimum temperature. The change was more for the northern regions as compared to the southern parts of the country. The strong correlation suggested that SDSM can be used with reasonable level of confidence to obtain future projections of night time temperature for the country.

Page(s): 39-54

DOI: DOI not available

Published: Journal: Pakistan Journal of Meterology, Volume: 8, Issue: 15, Year: 2011

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