Rise of global emergency of ozone layer depletion and Pakistan’s tomorrow. | [Proceedings of Pakistan Academy of Sciences • 2012]

Author(s):

1. M. Ayub Khan Yousufzai: Department of Applied Physics, University of Karachi and Institute of Space and Planetary Astrophysics, University of Karachi, Karachi 75270, Pakistan

2. Jawaid Quamar: Dada Bhoai Institute of Business and Management, Karachi, Pakistan

3. Imtaiz Ahmed: Biological Research Centre, Department of Zoology, University of Karachi, Karachi, Pakistan

Abstract:

Events such as the unprecedented huge industrial emissions of chlorofluorocarbon (CFCs) provide a most visible example of man-made atmospheric pollution and global disbalance of the natural ecology. Among other scientific and socio-economic fallouts from this, the phenomenon of ozone layer depletion (OLD) is particularly disturbing. It has already attracted wide attention throughout the globe by way of 1987 Montreal protocol. This paper looks into how to effectively model and forecast the menacing influence of OLD As such, with reference to the data for stratospheric region of Pakistan this communication presents the confidence interval for the population mean of ozone layer depletion (OLD) two significant levels of probability. Then it considers the development of an estimated autoregression model of order one for forecasting time series the data from 1970 to 1997 on monthly basis by identifying a set of related predictors. The issue of validation of the model also has been consider considered by interpreting graphically the predicted and observed data, by residual analysis, and by autocorrelation.

Page(s): 153-162

DOI: DOI not available

Published: Journal: Proceedings of Pakistan Academy of Sciences, Volume: 49, Issue: 2, Year: 2012

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