Abstract:
Objective: To establish and verify a nomogram for individualized prediction of patients with oesophageal and gastric variceal rupture and haemorrhage in cirrhosis. Study Design: Descriptive study. Place and Duration of Study: Department of Digestive Internal Medicine, Funan County People s Hospital, Anhui, China, from June 2017 to June 2020. Methodology: Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to identify the risk factors for oesophageal and gastric variceal bleeding in cirrhosis. An individualized risk prediction model was established, which was validated by the parallel bootstrap method and an external validation set. Results: It was found that emotional stimuli (OR=4.591, 95% CI: 1.419-14.852), improper diet (OR=3.702, 95% CI: 1.606-8.526), overwork (OR=3.529, 95% CI: 1.331-9.366), lower temperature (OR=3.013, 95% CI: 1.242-7.308), and increased abdominal pressure (OR=2.416, 95% CI: 0.900-6.487) were independent risk factors for oesophageal and gastric variceal bleeding in cirrhosis. A risk prediction model was established based on the ve risk factors, and the R equation test showed that the C-index of the modelling group and the veri cation group was 0.815 (95% CI: 0.794-0.836) and 0.812 (95% 0.793-0.831), respectively. Conclusion: The results of the correction curve showed little di erence, which indicated that the risk prediction model has good accuracy and differentiation.
Page(s):
586-590
DOI:
DOI not available
Published:
Journal: Journal of College of Physicians and Surgeons--Pakistan : JCPSP, Volume: 32, Issue: 5, Year: 2022
Keywords:
Risk factors
,
Cirrhosis
,
bleeding
,
Validation
,
Oesophagus varices and gastric fundus varices
,
Risk model