Validation of the seattle heart failure model (SHFM) in heart failure population. | [Journal of College of Physicians and Surgeons--Pakistan : JCPSP • 2014]

Author(s):

1. Sajjad Hussain: Department of Cardiology, Armed Forces Institute of Cardiology - National Institute of Heart Diseases (AFIC-NIHD), Rawalpindi, Pakistan

2. Azhar Mahmood Kayani: Department of Cardiology, Armed Forces Institute of Cardiology - National Institute of Heart Diseases (AFIC-NIHD), Rawalpindi, Pakistan

3. Rubab Munir: Heart Transplant and Research Department, Armed Forces Institute of Cardiology, National Institute of Heart Diseases, Rawalpindi, Pakistan

4. Irum Abid: Centre of Research in Experimental and Applied Medicine, NUST, Islamabad, Pakistan

Abstract:

Objective:To determine the effectiveness of Seattle Heart Failure Model (SHFM) in a Pakistani systolic heart failure cohort in predicting mortality in this population.study design:Cohort study.place and duration of study:The Armed Forces Institute of Cardiology - National Institute of Heart Diseases, Rawalpindi, from March 2011 to March 2012. Methodology: One hundred and eighteen patients with heart failure (HF) from the registry were followed for one year. Their 1-year mortality was calculated using the SHFM software on their enrollment into the registry. After 1-year predicted 1-year mortality was compared with the actual 1-year mortality of these patients. Results: The mean age was 41.6 ± 14.9 years (16 - 78 years). There were 73.7% males and 26.3% females. One hundred and fifteen patients were in NYHA class III or IV. Mean ejection fraction in these patients was 23 ± 9.3%. Mean brain natriuretic peptide levels were 1230 ± 1214 pg/mL. Sensitivity of the model was 89.3% with 71.1% specificity, 49% positive predictive value and 95.5% negative predictive value. The accuracy of the model was 75.4%. In ROC analysis, AUC for the SHFM was 0.802 (p

Page(s): 153-156

DOI: DOI not available

Published: Journal: Journal of College of Physicians and Surgeons--Pakistan : JCPSP, Volume: 24, Issue: 3, Year: 2014

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